Author: Thomas Schleusener
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The Climate Change Conspiracy and How to Position Your Investment Account in 2019
President Trump tweeted the following on Nov 6, 2012: US manufacturing is not competitive even without regard to climate change! It’s common economic sense. Chinese production costs are lower than the United States. Chinese manufacturing yearly wages amounted to $9,207 in 2017. The Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis Economic Research division estimates the average hourly…
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Patterns in the Numbers
Ray Dalio emphasizes credit cycles as integral to his firm’s investment strategy. Watch this video on how the economy functions: While we can be sure the pattern will repeat itself in some form or another, we can only be sure how the pattern played out in the past and play the game of averages. With…
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Friday Thoughts: Motivation
Find a scalable profession. While re-reading the The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb I came across the idea of scalable professions. These are professions where you can add zeros on your productivity and income without adding zeros onto your hours worked. By adopting a profession of this sort, you decouple your hours worked and income. Deploying…
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Get Paid to Take Risk
Is the risk-reward trade-off broken? Historically smaller companies have higher stock price returns, but this relationship has faded since 2008. What happened and why aren’t investors being compensated for taking more risk? Table 1.1 shows how small-cap stocks have performed relative to large-cap stocks since the Great Financial Crisis in 2007-08. There is more volatility…
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Government vs. Free Market: Crashes of the Past 100 Years
Were the most significant drops in financial markets a function of unstable free markets or government intervention? Nassim Taleb, author of bestseller The Black Swan, often speaks on the danger of putting abnormal events in tidy boxes. Readers should be aware that there are many factors influencing markets at any given time, and by assigning…
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Options Basics
Note: Updates to follow (8/22) An Option is a vehicle for traders to bet on price movements without having direct exposure to the underlying security; these allow traders to buy or sell a certain stock at a certain price at a certain time in the future. All of these you can choose to fit your…
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Vita Activa: The Future of Earth Lies in the Stars
Humans remain the only species that is capable of taking a relativistic view of our world to imagine others like it. We hold the fate of the world’s species in our hands, essentially playing God with the flora and fauna of our blue marble planet. With the massive amount of information and freedom available, humankind must…
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Long Electric Vehicles or Long EV Inputs?
The following is an investigation into who owns the inputs into Electric Vehicle (EV) batteries as well as other uses and recent price movements. This is a fast growing market, and it would be beneficial to every investor to get in early. But where do you put your hard earned money? “…the market of the…
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Money vs. Time: What’s the Point.
Both time and money can buy you experiences. Money can buy you freedom to experience what you want in life, but often the experiences aren’t as organic. Money can give you a whirlwind tour of what is possible in many different cultures, but won’t give you the experience of being part of the culture itself.…
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Followup: “Quick Thoughts on Markets: May 24”
Reflection on how my predictions panned out from my May 24th article: 1. Multiple expansion thru 2019; bull market to continue or trade sideways with lower earnings estimates, lower guidance. P/E forward and trailing, P/S, P/CapEx, all rising thru 2019. Over the last two months, we’ve seen multiple expansion in the S&P 500 (SPX) and…
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