Category: Non-Fiction
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Government vs. Free Market: Crashes of the Past 100 Years
Were the most significant drops in financial markets a function of unstable free markets or government intervention? Nassim Taleb, author of bestseller The Black Swan, often speaks on the danger of putting abnormal events in tidy boxes. Readers should be aware that there are many factors influencing markets at any given time, and by assigning…
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Options Basics
Note: Updates to follow (8/22) An Option is a vehicle for traders to bet on price movements without having direct exposure to the underlying security; these allow traders to buy or sell a certain stock at a certain price at a certain time in the future. All of these you can choose to fit your…
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Vita Activa: The Future of Earth Lies in the Stars
Humans remain the only species that is capable of taking a relativistic view of our world to imagine others like it. We hold the fate of the world’s species in our hands, essentially playing God with the flora and fauna of our blue marble planet. With the massive amount of information and freedom available, humankind must…
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Long Electric Vehicles or Long EV Inputs?
The following is an investigation into who owns the inputs into Electric Vehicle (EV) batteries as well as other uses and recent price movements. This is a fast growing market, and it would be beneficial to every investor to get in early. But where do you put your hard earned money? “…the market of the…
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Money vs. Time: What’s the Point.
Both time and money can buy you experiences. Money can buy you freedom to experience what you want in life, but often the experiences aren’t as organic. Money can give you a whirlwind tour of what is possible in many different cultures, but won’t give you the experience of being part of the culture itself.…
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Followup: “Quick Thoughts on Markets: May 24”
Reflection on how my predictions panned out from my May 24th article: 1. Multiple expansion thru 2019; bull market to continue or trade sideways with lower earnings estimates, lower guidance. P/E forward and trailing, P/S, P/CapEx, all rising thru 2019. Over the last two months, we’ve seen multiple expansion in the S&P 500 (SPX) and…
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Quick Thoughts on Markets: May 24
Quick thoughts on where markets will be/are: Multiple expansion thru 2019; bull market to continue or trade sideways with lower earnings estimates, lower guidance. P/E forward and trailing, P/S, P/CapEx, all rising thru 2019 Small cap debt expansion as small business owners feel more wealthy when tax season comes around in 2019, combined with rising…
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Fall of Empires
Sir John Glubb wrote an essay regarding the rise and fall of empires and the corellaries between them. The essay, titled Fate of Empires, has a lot to digest so I won’t be able to cover all of it here. I highly recommend you read it and draw your own conclusions with what is happening…
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Knee Jerk Vol & the Fed
The Fed is now shrinking its balance sheet; they are no longer buying new securities as they mature. Below is a bit of analysis on if the Fed’s recent activities in shrinking its balance sheet is the cause of the recent rise in volatility. Quick note: Data is at a weekly tenor, from Jan.…
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Bogus Tweet Risk
Most financial media is focused on “tweet risk” or “trade wars”. To me, these seem like water under the bridge. It’s in China’s interest politically to retaliate to trade sanctions, but not in their interest to crash US markets. They hold a massive amount of US Treasurys, if they stop buying US bonds, rates…
fungible thoughts 
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