Tag: interest rates
-
A Thought Exercise in AI Overlords
I’m not sure you could call the following “analysis” per se, but it’s an idea that’s been rolling around in my head for a while. Some background: Monetary policy is often times described with the following axiom: Expansionary monetary policy is like pushing on a string, while restrictive policy is like pulling on a string.…
-
Markets Potpourri
A smattering of thoughts: layoffs, AI bubble, Trump policy, crypto, Fed repo actions, fraud. Structural changes to US economy -> labor for infrastructure Verizon is the latest in a swath of tech companies laying off corporate staff, announcing it’s cutting up to 20% of it’s workforce. In recent weeks, Target Corp. announced plans to eliminate 1,800 roles,…
-
Room to run: AI and Markets
The advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) are expected to significantly impact workforce and education, despite cultural adaptation lagging behind. Major companies are heavily investing in AI models, presenting immense opportunities for growth. Additionally, the financial landscape is shifting due to high interest rates, influencing equity market dynamics and pushing for more private credit.
-
What’s the Point, Powell?
Thoughts of a Liberal Arts Graduate on the Fed, interest rates, inflation, demographics, and more The entire point of low interest rates was to shift consumers up the risk ladder. Lower potential returns in lower risk baskets purposefully pushed investors toward riskier options; pushed them to take more risk, for the same reward. The Fed…
-
Jingle Bells, Batman Smells: YTD Reflection & 2019 Positioning
Christmas season is upon us and geez has the year flown by. Below is a reflection on the year’s returns and what to expect/how to position going forward. Returns year to date have been tepid in the US and abysmal in Europe and Asia. The question is, what should investors expect moving into 2019? Growth…
-
Quick Thoughts on Markets: May 24
Quick thoughts on where markets will be/are: Multiple expansion thru 2019; bull market to continue or trade sideways with lower earnings estimates, lower guidance. P/E forward and trailing, P/S, P/CapEx, all rising thru 2019 Small cap debt expansion as small business owners feel more wealthy when tax season comes around in 2019, combined with rising…
-
Knee Jerk Vol & the Fed
The Fed is now shrinking its balance sheet; they are no longer buying new securities as they mature. Below is a bit of analysis on if the Fed’s recent activities in shrinking its balance sheet is the cause of the recent rise in volatility. Quick note: Data is at a weekly tenor, from Jan.…
-
Bogus Tweet Risk
Most financial media is focused on “tweet risk” or “trade wars”. To me, these seem like water under the bridge. It’s in China’s interest politically to retaliate to trade sanctions, but not in their interest to crash US markets. They hold a massive amount of US Treasurys, if they stop buying US bonds, rates…
-
FX Dynamics
Two competing forces in FX markets: Interest Rate Parity and Hot Money Interest Rate Parity states that a lower yielding currency should appreciate relative to a higher yielding currency. According to the International Fischer Relationship, higher yielding currencies have higher inflation domestically. This inflation difference causes the high yielding currency to depreciate relative to a…
fungible thoughts 
You must be logged in to post a comment.