Tag: Yellen

• Knee Jerk Vol & the Fed

  

    The Fed is now shrinking its balance sheet; they are no longer buying new securities as they mature. Below is a bit of analysis on if the Fed’s recent activities in shrinking its balance sheet is the cause of the recent rise in volatility. Quick note: Data is at a weekly tenor, from Jan.…

  Thomas Schleusener

  April 6, 2018

  Markets, Non-Fiction

  analysis, balance sheet, bonds, fed, federal reserve, Futures, interest rates, Jerome Powell, powell, rates, regression, shrinking, treasuries, Treasurys, vol, volatility, Yellen

• Bogus Tweet Risk

    Most financial media is focused on “tweet risk” or “trade wars”. To me, these seem like water under the bridge. It’s in China’s interest politically to retaliate to trade sanctions, but not in their interest to crash US markets. They hold a massive amount of US Treasurys, if they stop buying US bonds, rates…

  Thomas Schleusener

  April 3, 2018

  Markets, Non-Fiction

  bonds, interest rates, Markets, rates, Spread, stocks, Treasurys, trump, Tweet Risk, US Bonds, US Equities, vol smile, volatility, Yellen

• Trouble in Yellen-Land

  

  Bond markets and the Fed aren’t making sense. The Fed (“Yellen”) rose the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) last Wednesday, June 12th to a range of 1.00% to 1.25%. The Fed has two mandates: (1) to keep prices stable (i.e. keep inflation around 2%) and (2) to minimize unemployment. In other words, stabilize the economy by cooling…

  Thomas Schleusener

  June 26, 2017

  Markets, Non-Fiction

  bond markets, bonds, equities, fed, fed funds rate, ffr, gdp growth, global growth, inflation, Janet Yellen, liquidity, normalization, Yellen, yield curve, yield curve dynamics