Tag: inflation
-
A Thought Exercise in AI Overlords
I’m not sure you could call the following “analysis” per se, but it’s an idea that’s been rolling around in my head for a while. Some background: Monetary policy is often times described with the following axiom: Expansionary monetary policy is like pushing on a string, while restrictive policy is like pulling on a string.…
-
Quick Thoughts on Markets: May 24
Quick thoughts on where markets will be/are: Multiple expansion thru 2019; bull market to continue or trade sideways with lower earnings estimates, lower guidance. P/E forward and trailing, P/S, P/CapEx, all rising thru 2019 Small cap debt expansion as small business owners feel more wealthy when tax season comes around in 2019, combined with rising…
-
FX Dynamics
Two competing forces in FX markets: Interest Rate Parity and Hot Money Interest Rate Parity states that a lower yielding currency should appreciate relative to a higher yielding currency. According to the International Fischer Relationship, higher yielding currencies have higher inflation domestically. This inflation difference causes the high yielding currency to depreciate relative to a…
-
Trouble in Yellen-Land
Bond markets and the Fed aren’t making sense. The Fed (“Yellen”) rose the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) last Wednesday, June 12th to a range of 1.00% to 1.25%. The Fed has two mandates: (1) to keep prices stable (i.e. keep inflation around 2%) and (2) to minimize unemployment. In other words, stabilize the economy by cooling…
fungible thoughts 
You must be logged in to post a comment.