Category: Markets
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Options Basics
Note: Updates to follow (8/22) An Option is a vehicle for traders to bet on price movements without having direct exposure to the underlying security; these allow traders to buy or sell a certain stock at a certain price at a certain time in the future. All of these you can choose to fit your…
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Long Electric Vehicles or Long EV Inputs?
The following is an investigation into who owns the inputs into Electric Vehicle (EV) batteries as well as other uses and recent price movements. This is a fast growing market, and it would be beneficial to every investor to get in early. But where do you put your hard earned money? “…the market of the…
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Money vs. Time: What’s the Point.
Both time and money can buy you experiences. Money can buy you freedom to experience what you want in life, but often the experiences aren’t as organic. Money can give you a whirlwind tour of what is possible in many different cultures, but won’t give you the experience of being part of the culture itself.…
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Followup: “Quick Thoughts on Markets: May 24”
Reflection on how my predictions panned out from my May 24th article: 1. Multiple expansion thru 2019; bull market to continue or trade sideways with lower earnings estimates, lower guidance. P/E forward and trailing, P/S, P/CapEx, all rising thru 2019. Over the last two months, we’ve seen multiple expansion in the S&P 500 (SPX) and…
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Quick Thoughts on Markets: May 24
Quick thoughts on where markets will be/are: Multiple expansion thru 2019; bull market to continue or trade sideways with lower earnings estimates, lower guidance. P/E forward and trailing, P/S, P/CapEx, all rising thru 2019 Small cap debt expansion as small business owners feel more wealthy when tax season comes around in 2019, combined with rising…
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Knee Jerk Vol & the Fed
The Fed is now shrinking its balance sheet; they are no longer buying new securities as they mature. Below is a bit of analysis on if the Fed’s recent activities in shrinking its balance sheet is the cause of the recent rise in volatility. Quick note: Data is at a weekly tenor, from Jan.…
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Bogus Tweet Risk
Most financial media is focused on “tweet risk” or “trade wars”. To me, these seem like water under the bridge. It’s in China’s interest politically to retaliate to trade sanctions, but not in their interest to crash US markets. They hold a massive amount of US Treasurys, if they stop buying US bonds, rates…
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FX Dynamics
Two competing forces in FX markets: Interest Rate Parity and Hot Money Interest Rate Parity states that a lower yielding currency should appreciate relative to a higher yielding currency. According to the International Fischer Relationship, higher yielding currencies have higher inflation domestically. This inflation difference causes the high yielding currency to depreciate relative to a…
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Gotta Pay the Debt Collector
This entire rally is being fueled by credit, not real gains in productivity. A tweet: Let’s investigate. See: Three body problem. Tl;dr Good companies make good stocks, and high quality, trustworthy governments issue to low yielding, safe bonds. There is correlation, but as an investment strategy the relationship seems to be working less and less. Ben…
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So let me get this straight…
US Government Treasury bonds are the safest asset in the world today. They are implicitly guaranteed to get you your principal back at the maturity of your bond. Economists and investors commonly consider yields on Treasuries to be the ‘risk-free’ rate; meaning rates on Treasuries are the smallest amount of return an investment should provide.…
fungible thoughts 
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